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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

Junio
2025
Definición de términos:
Ganancias
OPV
Splits
Week 26

Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

Fecha: 12.2.2025

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Alibaba has already risen by more than 30% this year, mainly thanks to optimism around AI.* If Alibaba's AI models are confirmed to power iPhones in China, it could be a huge breakthrough for both companies. Apple needs a strong AI partner in this market, and Alibaba is looking to expand in the AI segment. So, this may be a win-win situation, but as always, the devil is hidden in the details.

Alibaba and its AI strategy: A great opportunity?

Alibaba has been struggling with a decline in Chinese consumption for a long time, which is affecting its traditional e-commerce business. Today, however, I realized that thanks to AI, a new space for growth is opening up for it. If Alibaba is going to be the main provider of AI solutions for Apple in China, it could be its chance to differentiate itself from the competition.

In January, the company released benchmarks of its Qwen 2.5 Max AI model, which outperformed Meta's Llama and DeepSeek's V3 model. Alibaba is thus clearly among the AI leaders in China, along with Tencent and ByteDance.

Personally, I think the biggest benefit of this partnership is that Alibaba can reach more creditworthy customers who own iPhones. If Apple integrates its AI models into its ecosystem, Alibaba can significantly boost the cloud business. Cloud revenue is expected to grow 11% annually starting in fiscal 2026. For me, this signals long-term growth potential, so I plan to strengthen my existing buying positions on Alibaba while the shares are trading at a relatively low valuation. [1]

Apple in the Chinese market: Why does it need Alibaba?

Apple is not yet a bed of roses in China. Huawei is gradually catching up with Apple's technological lead and is also strengthening its AI solutions for smartphones. When I realized that OpenAI and ChatGPT weren't allowed access in China, it started to make even more sense to me. Apple can't use Western AI models, so it urgently needs a local solution.

Now, Apple Intelligence (Apple's AI capabilities in collaboration with ChatGPT) is not available on Chinese iPhones, which means that the company must find a partner to help it comply with strict Chinese regulations. Alibaba is an ideal candidate in this regard. If this partnership succeeds, Apple can finally offer AI solutions in China while remaining competitive with Huawei.

Regulatory barriers

While I am excited about this news, I also had to look at the risks. China strictly controls the AI market and requires permission for all generative AI services. Since no major US AI platform has been approved so far, there is a big question mark over whether Alibaba and Apple will get the green light.

The companies have reportedly already submitted their AI services to China's cyber regulator for approval. If approved, the partnership could revolutionize the AI ecosystem in China. If not, Apple will find itself at a dead end and Alibaba will have to look for another strategy. That is why I will now focus on following regulatory decisions in China.

Analysts about the partnership

Today I also went through the statements from Morgan Stanley, and I was quite interested in their conclusion. They claim that Alibaba has a huge advantage in the form of data from its e-commerce business. Based on this, Apple could effectively use this data to personalize AI features for Chinese customers.

Some analysts even assume that if the partnership proves successful, Apple may also work with other Chinese cloud providers. This would mean expanding the AI infrastructure in China and strengthening Apple's position in this market.

On the other hand, Alibaba will need to invest heavily in research and infrastructure to handle the growing demand for AI solutions. In the short term, this can negatively affect its profitability, but in the long run, it can prove to be an excellent investment in the future.[2]

Summary: Great potential, but also uncertainty

The news about the cooperation between Apple and Alibaba made me think about how the AI ecosystem in China is changing. Apple is looking for a local solution for AI, Alibaba is trying to expand in the segment, which is currently dominated by Tencent and ByteDance. Both companies can thus gain, but they still have to go through difficult regulatory obstacles to the victorious end. If all goes as expected, it could be one of the most exciting AI investments in China. [3]

1Alibaba's share price performance over the past five years: https://tradingeconomics.com/baba:us

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

[1], [2], [3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Advertencia de riesgo: Los CFD son instrumentos complejos y conllevan un riesgo elevado de perder dinero rápidamente debido al apalancamiento. El 87.79% % de las cuentas de inversores minoristas pierden dinero en la negociación de CFD con este proveedor Debe considerar si comprende el funcionamiento de los CFD y si puede permitirse asumir un riesgo elevado de perder su dinero.