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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

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Definición de términos:
Ganancias

Earnings

refer to the profits or net income generated by a company during a specific period.

  • Earnings are a measure of a company's financial performance and are often reported on a quarterly or annual basis.

  • Positive earnings indicate that a company has made a profit, while negative earnings indicate a loss.

  • Earnings can be influenced by various factors, such as revenue, expenses, taxes, and other financial activities.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Actual

Actual refers to the real or current value or result of something. In the context of IPOs, actual can refer to the actual price or number of shares sold in the IPO, as opposed to the estimated price or number of shares.

Estimate

Estimate refers to a prediction or approximation of something, such as the expected price or number of shares in an IPO. Estimates are often made by investment banks and analysts based on market demand and other factors.

Difference

Difference refers to the numerical or percentage variance between two values. In the context of IPOs, difference can refer to the variance between the estimated and actual price or number of shares sold in the IPO.

Percent

Percent refers to a fraction of 100, often used to express a proportion or rate. In the context of IPOs, percent can be used to express the difference between the estimated and actual price or number of shares sold as a percentage of the estimated value.

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OPV

IPOs (Initial Public Offerings):

An IPO occurs when a private company sells its stock to the public for the first time to raise capital or money.

The money raised from an IPO can be used for various purposes, such as paying down debt, investing in the company's long-term health, research and development, expanding into new product lines, or purchasing fixed assets.

During the IPO process, the equity shares of private investors

convert into publicly owned shares of the new entity, and early investors may sell their stock once the company's shares begin trading.

The chief benefit of an IPO is to help the company raise money and gain access to the capital markets, allowing for expansion and increasing credibility.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Name

The name is the official name of the company whose shares are being offered in the IPO.

Exchange

The exchange is the stock exchange where the company's shares are listed and traded. Examples of stock exchanges include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq.

Currency

The currency is the type of currency in which the company's shares are priced and traded. This can vary depending on the country and stock exchange where the company is listed.

Start date

The start date is the date on which the company's shares begin trading on the stock exchange after the IPO.

Offer price

The offer price is the price at which the company's shares are initially offered to the public in the IPO. This price is set by the company and its underwriters based on market demand and other factors.

Shares

Shares refer to the units of ownership in the company that are being offered to the public in the IPO. These shares can be bought and sold on the stock exchange after the IPO.

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Splits

Splits (Stock Splits):

A stock split occurs when a company increases the number of its outstanding shares of stock to boost the stock's liquidity.

In a stock split, the number of shares outstanding increases by a specific multiple, but the total dollar value of all shares remains the same.

Companies often choose to split their stock to lower its trading price to a more comfortable range for most investors and increase the liquidity of trading in its shares.

For example, if a company decides to split its stock 2-for-1, the number of shares outstanding would double, while the share price would be halved.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Split date

The split date refers to the date on which the stock split takes effect. It is the date when the new shares resulting from the split are distributed to existing shareholders. Optionable

Optionable refers to whether the stock is eligible to be used as an underlying asset for options contracts. If a stock is optionable, it means that options can be traded on that stock.

Old shares

Old shares refer to the existing shares of a company before a stock split takes place. These are the shares that will be exchanged for the new shares resulting from the split.

New shares

New shares are the additional shares that are issued to existing shareholders as a result of a stock split. The number of new shares is determined by the split ratio, such as 2-for-1 or 3-for-2, where shareholders receive a certain number of new shares for each old share they own.

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The fall of Turkish lira

Fecha: 20.3.2023

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

As I read on Reuters, they are reporting that the big reason for the massive fall are earthquakes that hit the country last month. This is believed to make investors cautious when approaching to trade the Turkish currency or anything in connection with them. The next possible reason is said to be presidential and parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for 14th of May. However, based on past elections, I am not expecting any shocking news, apart from Erdogan staying on the position. Despite my believes, it can still be a very shocking event, as the country will decided if they will continue with unorthodox policies, or revert as it was promised by opposition.

Moving on, Turkey’s Treasury said that it had borrowed 2,25 billion USD in a Eurobond issue maturing in 2029. The total amount of borrowed money this year accumulated to 5 billion USD. Despite this, lira lost 30% against dollar this year alone. * I also read, that many are expecting lira to hover around the mark of 19, at least until elections are finished. In case that opposition wins, it is expected that lira will rise sharply, as the opposition would present more conventional policy. [1]

Another thing that I had to keep in mind is that Turkey’s inflation rate in October last year was 86% but dropped to “only” 58% in January. This caused the central bank of Turkey to raise interest rates to 9%. However, not long after that they lowered the rates to 8,5%.

I thought to myself that I have gathered enough fundamental information, so I decided to check the charts and numbers. I didn’t have much work with the chart, as it is immediately clear that the way for this pair is up – meaning, lira to keep losing value against USD. However, with all the bank problems, USD will also be unstable, so I will approach the pair very carefully. Five years ago, the exchange rate was around 4 liras for 1 USD. Because of the problems that Turkey is facing lately, this exchange rate jumped to 19. I decided to open position on long, however, when elections will be nearing, I will keep an eye on it.

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Movement of USDTRY in the last five years. (Source: Trading Economics) *

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Advertencia de riesgo: Los CFD son instrumentos complejos y conllevan un riesgo elevado de perder dinero rápidamente debido al apalancamiento. El 81.75% % de las cuentas de inversores minoristas pierden dinero en la negociación de CFD con este proveedor Debe considerar si comprende el funcionamiento de los CFD y si puede permitirse asumir un riesgo elevado de perder su dinero.