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Extreme volatility on USDJPY

Date: 10.2.2023

Early in the morning I heard the exclusive news from Japan – Kazuo Ueda is set to be nominated as a BOJ governor. I thought to myself, any time that governors or bank officials get changed, there is usually a volatility in given currency. And I was not wrong. I quickly checked the USDJPY and there was a big red candle, which identified the time that news came out. Because I am checking the USDJPY chart, that means that Japanese Yen got stronger, indicating that traders took the news very positively. This will also give us great opportunity on Japan’s index Nikkei, if the strength of Yen will continue to grow. [1]

Dollar on the other hand is being under pressure because of the inflation and financial aid to Ukraine. I also noticed some hints that FED decided to slowly stop with raising interest rates, which would be rather negative for the currency. So based on the fundamental analysis I have made, the pair should keep falling. At least, that’s what I thought. After following the chart for some time, and making a technical analysis on it, I realised that we hit the strong support level and that the value of pair is already returning back to the point it was before the news. Because of this support/resistance line, I think that I should approach the trade very carefully. That’s why I decided to open position on long, and it already proved to be the smart decision, as I have small profit there. However, we need to keep in mind that I opened smaller position, as I approached the trade safely and did not let myself get caught up in emotions.

After fundamental and technical analysis, I have concluded that right now at this moment, USDJPY is a good opportunity for long position.[2]  But if we are looking for long term trade, I could say that the charts will be in a downtrend, as they are for some time now. [3]  As I mentioned before, if FED will stop to raise the interest rates, and the decision of Bank of Japan will prove to be good, there is no reason for the price of USDJPY to fall.

Whenever we open a trade, we should not forget that USD is under more pressure, however the new governor can prove to be a failure, so the chart can make a quick U-turn, as it did today and also on the 3rd of February, when the price spiked. *

As seen below, I have opened the position at the price of 130.905 and while I was writing this diary, the price already hit 131.153, giving me a nice profit of 18.90%.


[1,2,3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which may change. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.

Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy

Date: 24.3.2023
S&P 500 under pressure

News lately are more or less spinning around the problems of the banks and volatility of currencies or inflation. The saga of banks collapsing is still reaping fear in investors. And accordingly, central banks of multiple countries are taking actions. US Fed, ECB and Bank of England decided to raise the interest rates again. ECB announced that it could raise again in May, while US seems it will leave it at this point if circumstances will not dictate otherwise. Fear of investors is always leaving negative impact on the market, and so did this time. I am talking about S&P 500, American index that is tracking 500 American companies. However, it is not the only index suffering at the moment.

Date: 22.3.2023
ChatGPT got a competition

Curiosity got better part of me, as probably is the same with many other people, and I went to try what ChatGPT can offer me. I had to admit that I was very surprised. It is something completely new and innovative. It basically knows answer to almost everything (happening before 2021) and can help you in many ways. However, I saw some discomfort of users, when they found out that Microsoft decided to charge a subscription for it. But hey, on the other hand, they need to get the investment back in some way. And to make things even worse, ChatGPT got a competition – Bard, AI of Google.

Date: 20.3.2023
The fall of Turkish lira

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

Date: 17.3.2023
ECB raised interest rates

Almost any news site that I opened, was reporting about the ECB’s decision yesterday to raise the interest rates for 0,5 point. And almost every article was guessing, what this could mean amidst the bank crisis around the world. In other articles there were news about the fall of Credit Suisse. I decided to make here a summary of things that I found out, to easier decide about the trade later.

Date: 15.3.2023
Chicken problem around the world

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.97% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.