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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

April
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 15

Airlines are doubling the profit outlook

Date: 5.6.2023

Summer is just around the corner, and what better news to it than the Covid pandemic seems to be gone. Countries are opening their borders, they are again inviting tourists, as they did before worldwide quarantine. It makes sense that I also found an article on Reuters, which said that global airlines are more than doubling their profit outlook for 2023.

Article said that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its 2023 industry profit forecast for global airlines, more than doubling it from 4.7 billion USD to 9.8 billion USD. This optimistic outlook is driven by strong travel demand and the reopening of borders following the COVID-19 pandemic. Revenue levels are also gradually approaching pre-pandemic levels, with an expected 803 billion USD in 2023 compared to 838 billion USD in 2019. Director General Willie Walsh emphasized that people not only need to travel but also want to travel, contributing to the sustained demand. However, Walsh acknowledged ongoing challenges, including supply chain issues and rising airport charges, which are impeding the industry's recovery. He called for solutions to address these issues and highlighted specific instances of excessive charge increases by Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands. Despite the rebound in demand, Walsh stressed that the current low level of profitability, with airlines earning around 2.25 USD per passenger, is unsustainable for the industry.

It is also true that I found many articles, when Covid was still spreading around the world, about airlines having problems with generating money and paying their employees. Because of that, many people went on strike or even got fired. It was clear at that time, that it can not go like this for long. And it seems, at least from my point of view, that the turnaround for these companies finally came.

It took me some time to decide for which airline I will go in terms of investing, and I found the perfect one, at least in my opinion. American Airlines stocks are falling for the past few years, causing it to come down to the current price of 14,87 USD per stock. The highest the stock has been in January 2018, when the price was 59 USD. * This is the pure reason, why I have decided to buy some shares in this company, as it gives me a lot of space for movement and potential profit, if it starts to grow and if the predictions for airlines this year are correct.

Picture1

Movement of American Airlines stocks in the last five years. (Source: Investing) *

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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