I opened the chart of AUDJPY, and it occurred to me that there was big volatility. And it makes sense, as Australian events had red and orange box, meaning, great impact on the value of currency. Early in the morning, there was a big spike in long direction for Australian dollar. I thought to myself, maybe because in expectation of positive results. But that was not the case, and after the release of data in Japan I noticed the quick change of a trend to short. Even though Japan also did not have that much better than expected results, it was still positive. For example, forecasted growth was an index of 47,4, while the actual growth was 47,7. Not much, but seems enough to have positively impacted Japanese yen. I moved on to technical analysis and I found out something interesting about the movement of these two currencies. The value is moving between 91.339 and 92.177 for around one week. The upper point is a resistance level, which it got confirmed today also as the price rebounded from there. And if the previous movement will still be valid, then I should see a fall of currency to the support level at 91.339. Currently the price is somewhere in the middle between them, at 91.810. *
Better to be safe than sorry, I went to verify my prediction on Investing, technical analysis indicators. As I wrote, they also predict for short term strong sell, meaning that the chart is expected to fall further. [1]
I listed back in my diary because something popped up in my mind. I was already researching some news regarding Japanese yen. And there it was, that they newly appointed the governor for Bank of Japan. And at that time, the markets took it positively. So, I am predicting, that this positivity will continue and therefore decided to open a position for AUDJPY on short. [2] I will hold it until it will reach the support level or come near it.
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* Past performance is no guarantee of future results
[1 ,2] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.
Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/currencies/aud-jpy