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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

May
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 20

Chicken problem around the world

Date: 15.3.2023

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

It did not take long for me to find an article on Investing, where it was written that Tyson Foods is shutting down two US chicken plants with nearly 1700 workers. But I thought to myself ok, this could have impact in USA. But what is happening in the other parts of the world? A little more digging brought me to many articles reporting that the bird flu is on the rise again, and therefore they need to kill the diseased chickens. Now this made a lot of sense to me, as we are facing now the typical supply and demand scenario – there is the same or bigger demand for eggs, but there is much less supply, causing the prices of eggs to skyrocket. All of this reminded me of a TV series called Billions, where similar scenario was happening, but intentionally, as they tried to manipulate the market.

Reading forward through the articles, it became quite clear to me that inflation plus supply demand is causing these prices. I picked one random store, to check how they are doing lately. I decided to check Walmart, one of the biggest store chains in the world. Finviz provided me with very useful articles about the store in question. Despite the rise of price for eggs, Walmart decided to make Easter meals affordable, to satisfy every customer. I totally forgot that Easter is just around the corner. But this year it seems it will be in smaller size as last year. Back to Walmart, I thought that it is very clever idea to make baskets affordable, so people are not shortened for such big holiday. They are also launching their own online shopping platform, called Walmart+, which will allow customers to buy many products online, including groceries. Now that solves many hours walking around the store, I thought. Despite this good news, I also found one bad, however not that critical. Walmart closed both stores in Portland and left the city. I think I found enough for my fundamental analysis, so as always I moved to technical part.

For the last two years, the price of a stock was more or less stable, as it was moving between 120 USD and the highest 150 USD. Before that, in 2018, the price of a stock was at 83 USD. This means, that in few years the price of a stock rose for almost 100%. * Based on the chart, I also think that there is a strong support level on the mark of 121 USD. Based on the fundamental part that I have found, and technical analysis, I have decided to enter the trade and open a position of Walmart on long.

Picture1

Movement of Walmart stocks in the last five years. (Source: Investing) *

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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