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Chicken problem around the world

Date: 15.3.2023

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

It did not take long for me to find an article on Investing, where it was written that Tyson Foods is shutting down two US chicken plants with nearly 1700 workers. But I thought to myself ok, this could have impact in USA. But what is happening in the other parts of the world? A little more digging brought me to many articles reporting that the bird flu is on the rise again, and therefore they need to kill the diseased chickens. Now this made a lot of sense to me, as we are facing now the typical supply and demand scenario – there is the same or bigger demand for eggs, but there is much less supply, causing the prices of eggs to skyrocket. All of this reminded me of a TV series called Billions, where similar scenario was happening, but intentionally, as they tried to manipulate the market.

Reading forward through the articles, it became quite clear to me that inflation plus supply demand is causing these prices. I picked one random store, to check how they are doing lately. I decided to check Walmart, one of the biggest store chains in the world. Finviz provided me with very useful articles about the store in question. Despite the rise of price for eggs, Walmart decided to make Easter meals affordable, to satisfy every customer. I totally forgot that Easter is just around the corner. But this year it seems it will be in smaller size as last year. Back to Walmart, I thought that it is very clever idea to make baskets affordable, so people are not shortened for such big holiday. They are also launching their own online shopping platform, called Walmart+, which will allow customers to buy many products online, including groceries. Now that solves many hours walking around the store, I thought. Despite this good news, I also found one bad, however not that critical. Walmart closed both stores in Portland and left the city. I think I found enough for my fundamental analysis, so as always I moved to technical part.

For the last two years, the price of a stock was more or less stable, as it was moving between 120 USD and the highest 150 USD. Before that, in 2018, the price of a stock was at 83 USD. This means, that in few years the price of a stock rose for almost 100%. * Based on the chart, I also think that there is a strong support level on the mark of 121 USD. Based on the fundamental part that I have found, and technical analysis, I have decided to enter the trade and open a position of Walmart on long.


Movement of Walmart stocks in the last five years. (Source: Investing) *

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Date: 24.3.2023
S&P 500 under pressure

News lately are more or less spinning around the problems of the banks and volatility of currencies or inflation. The saga of banks collapsing is still reaping fear in investors. And accordingly, central banks of multiple countries are taking actions. US Fed, ECB and Bank of England decided to raise the interest rates again. ECB announced that it could raise again in May, while US seems it will leave it at this point if circumstances will not dictate otherwise. Fear of investors is always leaving negative impact on the market, and so did this time. I am talking about S&P 500, American index that is tracking 500 American companies. However, it is not the only index suffering at the moment.

Date: 22.3.2023
ChatGPT got a competition

Curiosity got better part of me, as probably is the same with many other people, and I went to try what ChatGPT can offer me. I had to admit that I was very surprised. It is something completely new and innovative. It basically knows answer to almost everything (happening before 2021) and can help you in many ways. However, I saw some discomfort of users, when they found out that Microsoft decided to charge a subscription for it. But hey, on the other hand, they need to get the investment back in some way. And to make things even worse, ChatGPT got a competition – Bard, AI of Google.

Date: 20.3.2023
The fall of Turkish lira

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

Date: 17.3.2023
ECB raised interest rates

Almost any news site that I opened, was reporting about the ECB’s decision yesterday to raise the interest rates for 0,5 point. And almost every article was guessing, what this could mean amidst the bank crisis around the world. In other articles there were news about the fall of Credit Suisse. I decided to make here a summary of things that I found out, to easier decide about the trade later.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.97% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.