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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

May
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 20

CPI, scarecrow, or helper?

Date: 14.2.2024

Yesterday's trading day carried with it the announcement of an important macroeconomic indicator in the U.S. namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Even before the announcement, during the morning's analysis of the U.S. stock indices, I concluded that the price had the potential to fall. One fundamental fact led me to this decision. But let's go through the whole thing together from the beginning.

Analysis before the announcement

 

Unless there is some random manual intervention in the market, price moves based on regular algorithmic patterns, targeting two basic things. Liquidity and Market Imbalance. Therefore, before CPI, I focused on these two aspects and assessed that the price had been rising sharply for quite some time, thereby creating Imbalance zones, and leaving behind zones of relatively equal lows below which liquidity was accumulating. Based on this, I was expecting a sharp decline. Since I don't trade on days like this until the announcement due to the increased risk, I was waiting to see what would happen.

 

1

Imbalance zones on daily and 4h time frame

 

2

Relative Equal Lows on 1h time frame

 

CPI statement and figures

 

As far as the numbers are concerned, inflation in the US fell from the initial level of 3.4 to 3.1. Such a decline represents a positive factor for the US dollar and an opportunity for the Fed to reassess its view on monetary policy. Given that inflation is falling, there is unlikely to be a need to raise interest rates further. This could have a positive impact on US stocks going forward.

 

As I have already mentioned, the US dollar sees this decline as positive, and this has also contributed to the fact that stock indices have finally fallen as expected.

 

Trade of the day

 

After the price drop on the US100 index, I had a buy trade lined up as the longer-term trend is bullish, and such a short-term spike is purely to collect liquidity from traders and investors who bought early. *

 

The announcement occurred at 2:30 pm, so I waited until the situation calmed down and I could enter with less risk. Any trade must be done within the price model of the trader in question, but time should not be forgotten. 15:50 to 16:10 is the time when the orders of the big players are accumulating in the market while the technical parameters that make up my trading model have been found, and so I enter a buy position. In this trade, I ended up with a profit of 5R (Risk Reward Ratio).

 

3

Trade on US100, one-minute time frame

 

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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