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ECB raised interest rates

Date: 17.3.2023

Almost any news site that I opened, was reporting about the ECB’s decision yesterday to raise the interest rates for 0,5 point. And almost every article was guessing, what this could mean amidst the bank crisis around the world. In other articles there were news about the fall of Credit Suisse. I decided to make here a summary of things that I found out, to easier decide about the trade later.

But to easier understand, I had to start at the beginning – the break of SVB bank. First important article on Reuters reported, that SVB is in trouble and is right in front of collapse. Nevertheless, American government decided to help them and try to save them. But, despite that, the domino effect was in motion. First bigger hit took the American banks. But that did not stay there, as few days after that, Credit Suisse, the second biggest bank in Switzerland, reported problems and was facing a collapse if not offered help. I moved to the second article, where it was written that Central Bank of Switzerland offered a loan to Credit Suisse and that way calmed the European markets, which were all in red. Before the help came, stocks of Credit Suisse fell more than 30%.* In this same article it was said that Credit Suisse will borrow 50 billion euros, in effort to save themselves.

Moving on, but staying in Europe, I noticed another article on Investing, which said that ECB (European Central Bank) decided to raise the interest rates by 0,5 point. It’s a bold move if you ask me to do so right in the middle of big turmoil happening, however, it was also written that they decided to do this just because of positive news about helping Credit Suisse. Rate hike also signals strong confidence in European banks. However, I think they should still be careful, as many analysts said that the scenario looks very similar to the one in 2008, when great recession followed. But, about that we will see. I hope for the best.

I thought, ok, one more article and it was quite positive for the banks in Euro zone. ECB supervisors said that they don’t see any contagion to euro zone from bank turmoil, which is great. But maybe too soon to judge?

Moving on to technical analysis, I didn’t have much work there. The price of a stock was falling for the last five years. In 2019, the price of a stock was at around 17 euros, but it fell all the way to 2,16 euros.* However, I need to keep in mind, that Credit Suisse is too big and too important to collapse, so I predict that everyone will do as much as possible to keep it alive. That’s why I decided to buy stocks of Credit Suisse.


Movement of Credit Suisse stocks in the last five years. (Source: Investing)

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Date: 24.3.2023
S&P 500 under pressure

News lately are more or less spinning around the problems of the banks and volatility of currencies or inflation. The saga of banks collapsing is still reaping fear in investors. And accordingly, central banks of multiple countries are taking actions. US Fed, ECB and Bank of England decided to raise the interest rates again. ECB announced that it could raise again in May, while US seems it will leave it at this point if circumstances will not dictate otherwise. Fear of investors is always leaving negative impact on the market, and so did this time. I am talking about S&P 500, American index that is tracking 500 American companies. However, it is not the only index suffering at the moment.

Date: 22.3.2023
ChatGPT got a competition

Curiosity got better part of me, as probably is the same with many other people, and I went to try what ChatGPT can offer me. I had to admit that I was very surprised. It is something completely new and innovative. It basically knows answer to almost everything (happening before 2021) and can help you in many ways. However, I saw some discomfort of users, when they found out that Microsoft decided to charge a subscription for it. But hey, on the other hand, they need to get the investment back in some way. And to make things even worse, ChatGPT got a competition – Bard, AI of Google.

Date: 20.3.2023
The fall of Turkish lira

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

Date: 15.3.2023
Chicken problem around the world

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.97% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.