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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

Jun
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 24

EUR/USD - Imbalance zones are key

Date: 12.6.2023

During the weekend, when trading in the markets is suspended, there is room for in-depth technical and fundamental analysis of selected markets. Given that my primary market is the US Dollar (USD) itself, I analysed this market. Starting from higher time frames, such as daily and weekly, I was intrigued by certain contexts that made my attention even more riveted, and consequently, I was looking forward to Monday's opening of the markets.

May was marked by strong buying pressure for the USD. As the market moves in patterns, it is always possible to expect some correction after a strong move upwards/downwards. In this case, on the daily time frame, 8.6, the USD formed a sharp bearish candle, one of many signals indicating the start of a correction. [1] I see the daily Imbalance (IMB) zones around the 102.7 and 101.8 levels as potential correction targets. The 102.7 zone has several factors that may make it very attractive in price. In addition to being a daily IMB zone, it is also a weekly one. Further, it is important to mention that these zones correspond with the previous structure point and the 0.5 Fibonacci (FIB) level.

1

In terms of the four-hour time frame, the price is still in a bullish structure, but the 0.214 Fibonacci level has already been tested. Subsequently, I observed a corrective Price Flow, indicating a lack of buyers' strength.

2

Shifting my analysis to the one-hour time frame, I noticed that the price "broke" on the bearish structure, which, along with other factors, is a very favourable situation for me, as I would like to sell the USD. I have identified several Areas of Interest (AoI,) in which I would like to execute my trade. The most attractive was the one around the 103.6 level. There were the daily and one-hour IMB zones and the 0.5/0.618 FIB levels.

3

I always wait for confirmation of movement on smaller time frames before entering a trade. With this setup, I waited for the price to "break" below the Higher High (HH) on the 15m chart. This did happen, and I had an open path to enter the trade at that point. EUR/USD is the market that correlates the most with DXY. So, I opened the EUR/USD chart and placed a pending order at the 0.5 FIB level because of the more lucrative Risk Reward Ratio - the ratio of risk to the potential reward.

4

5

I closed the trade with a profit of 3.7 RRR/7%. I didn't want to leave this trade open longer than today as there will be many macroeconomic reports announced, which will sharply increase volatility in the markets.

6

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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