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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

May
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 18

Inflation pressure – opportunity for gold?

Date: 13.2.2023

Another Monday, another week for market opportunities. I woke up, made coffee, and checked the news. Many sources are claiming that despite January’s inflation was lower than before, it is now expected to get higher again. And I thought to myself, that this can only mean one thing. Possible opportunity on gold, because it was always regarded as safe haven – in other words, when inflation was rising, people intended to invest into gold. I have been following this instrument for quite some time now and saw many interesting things on the chart itself.

Another Monday, another week for market opportunities. I woke up, made coffee, and checked the news. Many sources are claiming that despite January’s inflation was lower than before, it is now expected to get higher again. And I thought to myself, that this can only mean one thing. Possible opportunity on gold, because it was always regarded as safe haven – in other words, when inflation was rising, people intended to invest into gold. I have been following this instrument for quite some time now and saw many interesting things on the chart itself.

First, I noticed (and anyone checking the chart probably) a massive correction from about two weeks ago. The price of gold rapidly dropped from 1951 USD per ounce to current 1855 USD per ounce. * This means a 5% discount for us traders. I was checking for the reasons behind the drop, and all I could figure out was the inflation, FED and ECB meetings and of course, interest rates. When the price got steadier, I performed some technical analysis. From the chart below, I noticed the bearish channel. This channel was forming from 3rd of February until 9th of February, when my prediction turned out to be correct. When the channel “ended” it was followed by a small drop. After the price found a support level, it has again started forming another pattern – falling wedge. And if theory is any correct, after the channel closes, the price could rise.[1]

Because of volatility on the markets, I decided to do also fundamental analysis. Better be safe than sorry. As for important market events for the next 3 days, there are three things that could have major effect on the price of gold.

- Today EU will hold meetings, where they will discuss EU economic forecasts.

- Tomorrow USA will release monthly and yearly CPI which have great effect on USD and eventually on gold.

- On Wednesday ECB president Lagarde will hold speech.

So, my fundamental analysis is as follows. EU is very close to the ongoing war and members are helping financially. Meaning that there is a lot of burden on the euro.  On the other hand, USA is one of the leading economies in the world, and their inflation rate is important for the price of gold. And last, ECB meeting can bring some basic volatility to the capital markets. After rereading the technical analysis and considering the fundamental part, I have decided to go with long position for short/mid long term.

*

Obrázok2

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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