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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

April
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 14

Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Date: 19.2.2025

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Obrázek1

Performance of Intel Corporation´s stock over 5 years. Source: Tradingview.com

Key negotiations

The most intriguing development for me is the report that TSMC is allegedly in talks to acquire a controlling stake in Intel's U.S. factories. If an agreement were reached, it could mean that Intel exits the manufacturing segment entirely, focusing solely on development. However, the Biden administration remains skeptical about allowing a foreign company to operate strategically important factories.

At the same time, Broadcom is reportedly considering an informal acquisition of Intel's chip development and marketing division, which could lead to a complete transformation of the company. Additionally, advanced negotiations are underway with Silver Lake Management regarding the sale of a stake in Intel's Altera programmable chip division, although the specific terms have yet to be finalized.

Risks and potential consequences for Intel

As an investor, my primary concern remains whether Intel still has a chance for an independent recovery or if it will ultimately be split among multiple players. If TSMC and Broadcom reach an agreement, Intel could lose funding from the CHIPS and Science Act, further jeopardizing its long-term plans.[1]

On the other hand, if the company undergoes strategic restructuring, shedding less profitable segments, it could refocus on development and innovation in AI. Currently, the situation remains in the negotiation phase, but the market is already reacting, and expectations are high.

I will closely monitor the board's next steps and whether any of these potential transactions actually materialize.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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