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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

Jun
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 26

Interest rates in Great Britain and USA

Date: 8.3.2023

At my morning chart checks, one specific drop caught my interest – a drop in the value of GBPUSD. It was quite remarkable or unusual drop, so I thought to myself that something big had to happen. * Quick search on Investing provided me with necessary information. Yesterday’s press conference in US signalled, that they will have to raise interest rates more often than predicted, at least according to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And when this man says something, there will for sure be volatility on the markets. And it was just like that. But concerning this particular forex pair, there were also news from the UK, which showed that investors believe that interest rates will be higher for “only” 0,25 percentage point, and not 0,50 as it was first thought. However, for the actual increase, I will have to wait until 23rd of March, for when the hike in UK is scheduled.

I moved back to the chart, and I couldn’t get past this drop. And interestingly, it stopped in one of the support levels, that bounced the price back also in the beginning of January. But when I moved around with the cursor, the drop was not that explicit as it first seemed, as it was 2,09%. It fell from the point of 1,20625 to the current price at 1,18342. And this is exactly the price where Decembers/Januarys drops stopped and returned. Because the price looks like it can’t decide if it wants to continue with the fall, or it wants to go back up, I thought to myself that it would be smart idea to approach the trade with care. * And of course, I need more information regarding the currencies to make an easier decision.

I continued with the reading of article I have found. The interest rate hike in the UK is still not confirmed, while Jerome Powell made a signal that US will highly likely decide to do so. In theory, or in past it has shown that when given country decided to raise the rates, the value of its currency strengthened. * For me as a person, or daily spender, that is good. But for me as an investor, not so much. Or depends on what I want to invest into.

As everything was very confusing and unclear, I checked the economic calendar for today, as well as what technical indicators on investing say. As for economic events today, USA will release the non-farm employment change data, as well as Powell will testify again. Again, the volatility. But I am expecting positive news. Long term, the indicators say sell, while for very short term (5 minutes chart), indicators say long. And I am here for longer term, so I decided to open a position on short, in expectance of positive news from the US. [1]

Picture1

*

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 87.79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.