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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

April
2025
Definition of terms:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 14

Microsoft eyes OpenAI integration

Date: 22.11.2023

One of the best chatbots in the world, ChatGPT, has taken everyone by the storm. We can use it for many things – ask it something, tell it to make you some text, and it can even program you a code. For this reason, it got very popular among people of all ages and all occupations. I have known since the start, that one of the major investors in OpenAI is Microsoft, so I was not that surprised today to find an article on Investing, which said that Microsoft is looking to integrate OpenAI.

Article said that as Microsoft charts a pivotal course in its association with OpenAI, the tech giant explores strategic pathways to fortify its artificial intelligence pursuits, particularly after Sam Altman's shift to Microsoft from OpenAI. This move aims to amplify AI capabilities and sustain the growth of its ChatGPT user base. Speculation arose regarding Altman's replacement at OpenAI, hinting at Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, as a potential candidate. However, Amodei dispelled these rumours, refuting any intentions to assume the role of CEO or engage in a merger with OpenAI. Amid the leadership transition, concerns from investors surfaced, potentially leading to legal challenges against OpenAI's board. Satya Nadella, Microsoft's CEO, viewed Altman's move as a necessary step toward governance reform at OpenAI, assuring that it doesn't imperil their long-term goals. Nadella also hinted at the possibility of OpenAI staff joining Microsoft's expansive AI division.

So far, amazing news for both mentioned companies. But it did not stop there. Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted Microsoft's intricate situation concerning OpenAI, underscoring the necessity to address internal leadership conflicts or potentially integrate OpenAI's Research Lab into Microsoft. The primary focus revolves around advancing research in Artificial General Intelligence while ensuring the expansion of the ChatGPT subscriber base. Microsoft's developmental initiatives encompass Azure OpenAI Services and the creation of products utilizing GPT technology. Despite a substantial rally, Wall Street analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus on Microsoft stock, projecting an average price target that indicates over 10% growth potential.[1]

Stocks are currently near the all-time high, as the price for a stock is 373 USD.* If the predictions of analysts will come true, then there I see a very big potential for growth. Based on the news, I have decided to invest into Microsoft, regardless of its high price.

Picture1

Movement of Microsoft in the last five years. (Source: Investing) *

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Date: 26.2.2025
Super Micro Averts the Threat of Delisting and Rises Sharply

After analyzing the quarterly results of Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), I noticed a sharp increase in the price of their shares. In extended trading, they rose by about 22% after the company filed its late financial statements on time to meet the Nasdaq exchange's requirements to remain in the index. The move removed the threat of delisting that hung over the firm due to financial reporting issues and the loss of an auditor in 2023. At the same time, Super Micro announced that the new BDO auditor confirmed the compliance of the results with GAAP accounting principles, which managed to stabilize the situation. What awaits us next?

Date: 19.2.2025
Intel and Speculation About a Possible Company Split

Today, I noticed that Intel's stock has risen by nearly 50% from its February low, clearly indicating that the price is reacting to ongoing speculation about a potential company split.* Intel has been struggling with the loss of its technological edge and market share, with its performance lagging behind competitors like Nvidia, which dominates the AI chip segment. Ongoing negotiations between TSMC, Broadcom, and the Silver Lake investment group suggest that Intel's leadership is actively exploring ways to regain its market position and restore investor confidence.

Date: 12.2.2025
Alibaba and Apple Forge AI Partnership in China

This morning, I noticed a sharp increase in Alibaba shares – almost 8%1 since last week. The stock thus continues the bullish trend that we last saw in September last year.* I immediately started to find out what was behind it, and I came across an interesting piece of news. Apple is reportedly working with Alibaba to develop AI features for iPhones in China. This news immediately caught my attention, so I started looking for ways to benefit from it.

Date: 5.2.2025
AMD Slips After Earnings Report

For us investors following the semiconductor sector, today was very significant. AMD announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations in terms of both sales and profit. Nevertheless, the shares fell by more than 9% after the end of regular trading hours.* This decline subsequently raised questions that I also dealt with. Is this an overreaction of the market, or is it a legitimate warning sign?

Date: 29.1.2025
ASML Exceeds Expectations: A Buying Opportunity?

Today's trading day was very interesting for me as I focused on the results of ASML, a leading player in chip manufacturing equipment, which published its results for the fourth quarter. ASML reported orders worth €7.09 billion, well above expectations. This order intake is a significant indicator that the demand for advanced equipment, driven by the growth of the AI field, remains strong.

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