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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

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Definition of terms:
Earnings

Earnings

refer to the profits or net income generated by a company during a specific period.

  • Earnings are a measure of a company's financial performance and are often reported on a quarterly or annual basis.

  • Positive earnings indicate that a company has made a profit, while negative earnings indicate a loss.

  • Earnings can be influenced by various factors, such as revenue, expenses, taxes, and other financial activities.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Actual

Actual refers to the real or current value or result of something. In the context of IPOs, actual can refer to the actual price or number of shares sold in the IPO, as opposed to the estimated price or number of shares.

Estimate

Estimate refers to a prediction or approximation of something, such as the expected price or number of shares in an IPO. Estimates are often made by investment banks and analysts based on market demand and other factors.

Difference

Difference refers to the numerical or percentage variance between two values. In the context of IPOs, difference can refer to the variance between the estimated and actual price or number of shares sold in the IPO.

Percent

Percent refers to a fraction of 100, often used to express a proportion or rate. In the context of IPOs, percent can be used to express the difference between the estimated and actual price or number of shares sold as a percentage of the estimated value.

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IPOs

IPOs (Initial Public Offerings):

An IPO occurs when a private company sells its stock to the public for the first time to raise capital or money.

The money raised from an IPO can be used for various purposes, such as paying down debt, investing in the company's long-term health, research and development, expanding into new product lines, or purchasing fixed assets.

During the IPO process, the equity shares of private investors

convert into publicly owned shares of the new entity, and early investors may sell their stock once the company's shares begin trading.

The chief benefit of an IPO is to help the company raise money and gain access to the capital markets, allowing for expansion and increasing credibility.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Name

The name is the official name of the company whose shares are being offered in the IPO.

Exchange

The exchange is the stock exchange where the company's shares are listed and traded. Examples of stock exchanges include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq.

Currency

The currency is the type of currency in which the company's shares are priced and traded. This can vary depending on the country and stock exchange where the company is listed.

Start date

The start date is the date on which the company's shares begin trading on the stock exchange after the IPO.

Offer price

The offer price is the price at which the company's shares are initially offered to the public in the IPO. This price is set by the company and its underwriters based on market demand and other factors.

Shares

Shares refer to the units of ownership in the company that are being offered to the public in the IPO. These shares can be bought and sold on the stock exchange after the IPO.

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Splits

Splits (Stock Splits):

A stock split occurs when a company increases the number of its outstanding shares of stock to boost the stock's liquidity.

In a stock split, the number of shares outstanding increases by a specific multiple, but the total dollar value of all shares remains the same.

Companies often choose to split their stock to lower its trading price to a more comfortable range for most investors and increase the liquidity of trading in its shares.

For example, if a company decides to split its stock 2-for-1, the number of shares outstanding would double, while the share price would be halved.

Code

The code is a unique identifier assigned to a company's stock by the stock exchange where it is listed. It is used to identify the stock in trading and other financial transactions.

Split date

The split date refers to the date on which the stock split takes effect. It is the date when the new shares resulting from the split are distributed to existing shareholders. Optionable

Optionable refers to whether the stock is eligible to be used as an underlying asset for options contracts. If a stock is optionable, it means that options can be traded on that stock.

Old shares

Old shares refer to the existing shares of a company before a stock split takes place. These are the shares that will be exchanged for the new shares resulting from the split.

New shares

New shares are the additional shares that are issued to existing shareholders as a result of a stock split. The number of new shares is determined by the split ratio, such as 2-for-1 or 3-for-2, where shareholders receive a certain number of new shares for each old share they own.

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Preparing for Shoe Carnival's Upcoming Earnings Report

Date: 4.9.2024

Over the weekend, I was preparing a list of companies that will be releasing their quarterly results, and my attention was most drawn to Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ: SCVL), which, outside of fundamentals, has a very attractive situation from a technical analysis perspective. The footwear retailer has been doing well lately, beating earnings expectations last quarter, posting a 6.8% year-over-year increase to reach sales of $300.4 million. The solid results beat analysts' estimates and demonstrated the company's resilience in a competitive market.

Market expectations

Ahead of this earnings report, analysts are forecasting strong results, expecting year-on-year revenue growth of 14.2% to $336.3m. This would mark a significant recovery after the 5.7% decline recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings per share should reach $0.83, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to maintain momentum.

Interestingly, analysts have largely maintained their earnings forecasts for Shoe Carnival over the past 30 days, indicating stable expectations ahead of the earnings announcement. However, it is important to note that Shoe Carnival has missed earnings estimates six times in the past two years, highlighting the volatility we need to be mindful of.

Peer comparisons and sector performance

Recent results from companies such as Foot Locker and Boot Barn provide insight into sector performance. Foot Locker reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 1.9%, in line with market expectations, but resulting in a 4.6%[1] fall in its post-earnings share price. In contrast, Boot Barn outperformed, with sales up 10.3%, beating estimates by 1.6% and leading to a 13.7%[2] rise in its share price.

The clothing and footwear retail sector has seen some optimism in recent weeks, with the average share price rising 1.9% over the past month. However, Shoe Carnival's[3] shares have lagged, falling 2.7% over the same period. Still, the average analyst price target for Shoe Carnival remains at $50.5, indicating significant upside potential from the current share price of $38.06. [1]

Strategic Considerations for Investors

The key question for investors is whether Shoe Carnival can meet or exceed expectations and reverse its recent underperformance relative to peers. Projected double-digit revenue growth and an improved earnings outlook could position the company favourably, but a history of missed targets suggests that caution is warranted.

Given the mixed performance of its competitors and the recent resilience of the broader sector, there is potential for a positive market reaction if Shoe Carnival meets its guidance. However, I plan to remain vigilant and weigh the risks and opportunities presented by the upcoming news.

Conclusion

Shoe Carnival's upcoming results could be a turning point for this stock, especially if the company can beat expectations and demonstrate consistent growth. As always, maintaining a balanced view and keeping a close eye on tomorrow's results will be essential to making informed investment decisions.

 

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.


[1] Foot locker's stock price performance over the past five years: https://tradingeconomics.com/fl:us

[2] Boot Barn's stock price performance over the past five years: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BOOT/

[3] Shoe Carnival's stock price performance over the past five years: https://tradingeconomics.com/scvl:us

Date: 27.11.2024
Uneven Recovery in the Global Smartphone Market

This year, I’ve been closely watching the global smartphone market, which has finally rebounded after two years of decline. The numbers are encouraging, with a 6.2% growth and total shipments reaching an estimated 1.24 billion units. However, as I delve deeper, I see a more nuanced picture. Apple, despite its dominance, managed only a modest 0.4% increase in iPhone volumes, signaling the intense competition from Android-based manufacturers, especially in China and emerging markets.

Date: 20.11.2024
Qualcomm Expands Horizons Beyond Smartphones: I'm Buying This Promising Player at a Low Price

Today I took the time to analyze Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) in detail, which seems to be on a very interesting development trajectory. As the world's largest seller of smartphone processors, the company recognizes the need to diversify its business and find new sources of growth, which leads me as an investor to think more deeply about its future potential.

Date: 13.11.2024
Shopify's Growth Signals the Strength of Its Transformative Strategy

Today, I followed the market with a particular interest in Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), a company that has become synonymous with e-commerce over the years. Looking at their latest financial results and strategic moves, it's clear that their transformation into a platform for larger businesses is bearing fruit.

Date: 6.11.2024
Nvidia Overtakes Apple as the World’s Largest Company: The AI Boom in Full Swing

Today, I find myself reflecting on Nvidia Corp.’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) meteoric rise to become the largest company in the world, surpassing none other than Apple Inc. Nvidia’s stock rose 2.9%[1] to $139.93, pushing its market cap to an astonishing $3.43 trillion, overtaking Apple’s $3.38 trillion valuation.* To put this into perspective, Microsoft, which Nvidia already surpassed last month, holds a valuation of $3.06 trillion. What stands out to me is how artificial intelligence has fundamentally reshaped Wall Street’s landscape, with Nvidia emerging as the clearest beneficiary of the AI revolution.

Date: 30.10.2024
OpenAI and Broadcom’s Strategic AI Chip Development

Today, I've been closely following the news about OpenAI's plans to collaborate with Broadcom Inc. on its own AI chip, designed specifically for inference – the process of running AI models after they've been trained. This potential game-changer is attracting the attention of the tech world, as OpenAI seeks to develop a solution focused on responding to user requests rather than traditional training dominated by Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs).

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