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Interest rates in Great Britain and USA

Date: 8.3.2023

At my morning chart checks, one specific drop caught my interest – a drop in the value of GBPUSD. It was quite remarkable or unusual drop, so I thought to myself that something big had to happen. * Quick search on Investing provided me with necessary information. Yesterday’s press conference in US signalled, that they will have to raise interest rates more often than predicted, at least according to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And when this man says something, there will for sure be volatility on the markets. And it was just like that. But concerning this particular forex pair, there were also news from the UK, which showed that investors believe that interest rates will be higher for “only” 0,25 percentage point, and not 0,50 as it was first thought. However, for the actual increase, I will have to wait until 23rd of March, for when the hike in UK is scheduled.

I moved back to the chart, and I couldn’t get past this drop. And interestingly, it stopped in one of the support levels, that bounced the price back also in the beginning of January. But when I moved around with the cursor, the drop was not that explicit as it first seemed, as it was 2,09%. It fell from the point of 1,20625 to the current price at 1,18342. And this is exactly the price where Decembers/Januarys drops stopped and returned. Because the price looks like it can’t decide if it wants to continue with the fall, or it wants to go back up, I thought to myself that it would be smart idea to approach the trade with care. * And of course, I need more information regarding the currencies to make an easier decision.

I continued with the reading of article I have found. The interest rate hike in the UK is still not confirmed, while Jerome Powell made a signal that US will highly likely decide to do so. In theory, or in past it has shown that when given country decided to raise the rates, the value of its currency strengthened. * For me as a person, or daily spender, that is good. But for me as an investor, not so much. Or depends on what I want to invest into.

As everything was very confusing and unclear, I checked the economic calendar for today, as well as what technical indicators on investing say. As for economic events today, USA will release the non-farm employment change data, as well as Powell will testify again. Again, the volatility. But I am expecting positive news. Long term, the indicators say sell, while for very short term (5 minutes chart), indicators say long. And I am here for longer term, so I decided to open a position on short, in expectance of positive news from the US. [1]



* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd

Date: 24.3.2023
S&P 500 under pressure

News lately are more or less spinning around the problems of the banks and volatility of currencies or inflation. The saga of banks collapsing is still reaping fear in investors. And accordingly, central banks of multiple countries are taking actions. US Fed, ECB and Bank of England decided to raise the interest rates again. ECB announced that it could raise again in May, while US seems it will leave it at this point if circumstances will not dictate otherwise. Fear of investors is always leaving negative impact on the market, and so did this time. I am talking about S&P 500, American index that is tracking 500 American companies. However, it is not the only index suffering at the moment.

Date: 22.3.2023
ChatGPT got a competition

Curiosity got better part of me, as probably is the same with many other people, and I went to try what ChatGPT can offer me. I had to admit that I was very surprised. It is something completely new and innovative. It basically knows answer to almost everything (happening before 2021) and can help you in many ways. However, I saw some discomfort of users, when they found out that Microsoft decided to charge a subscription for it. But hey, on the other hand, they need to get the investment back in some way. And to make things even worse, ChatGPT got a competition – Bard, AI of Google.

Date: 20.3.2023
The fall of Turkish lira

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

Date: 17.3.2023
ECB raised interest rates

Almost any news site that I opened, was reporting about the ECB’s decision yesterday to raise the interest rates for 0,5 point. And almost every article was guessing, what this could mean amidst the bank crisis around the world. In other articles there were news about the fall of Credit Suisse. I decided to make here a summary of things that I found out, to easier decide about the trade later.

Date: 15.3.2023
Chicken problem around the world

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.97% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.