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The collapse of SVB

Date: 13.3.2023

When checking the charts of cryptocurrencies and forex in the morning, I was surprised to see that much volatility. I thought to myself, for sure something big had to happen. My suspicion was correct, as one of the first articles on Investing was written about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The article said that Euro area and U.S. bond yields tumbled, while in other news there was reported 10% increase of Bitcoin, because USD got weaker.* I decided to look further into the case.

The article said that investors seeking safe-haven assets caused a decrease in government bond yields in the US and Europe on Monday, while considering the potential repercussions of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and a possible less aggressive tightening from the US Federal Reserve. To address concerns of a broader financial crisis following the failure of SVB, US authorities implemented emergency measures on Sunday to restore confidence in the banking system. The impact of SVB's collapse continued to negatively affect markets worldwide, with bank shares in Europe and Asia dropping sharply, and even large US banks experiencing a pre-market rally before authorities intervened. I was right, many things did in fact happen. I read further and saw that as a result, Goldman Sachs analysts no longer anticipate a rate hike at the US central bank's 22nd of March meeting and note significant uncertainty beyond March due to recent events in the banking sector. The US 2-year Treasury yield fell by 34 basis points to 4.25%, the lowest it has been since 3rd of February. Likewise, Germany's 2-year yield decreased by 40 bps to 2.67%, hitting its lowest level since 9th of February and recording its largest daily drop since January 1995.

Many things that could influence both of currencies. I reopened the chart of EURUSD and the volatility in the past few days have been remarkable. On 8th of March, the price of this pair was on 1.05276 and then rapidly increased to 1.07351. So, in a span of 2 days a 2% increase. After that, USD seems to find some stability, as the pair fell to current 1.06635.*

It is a hard choice to make for what to open position on. I have decided to go more for the longer term and open a position on long. I expect that the saga with SVB will keep a negative effect on the USD more than on EUR. However, short term trade seems like to be a good opportunity for sell.


* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Source to a 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd

Date: 24.3.2023
S&P 500 under pressure

News lately are more or less spinning around the problems of the banks and volatility of currencies or inflation. The saga of banks collapsing is still reaping fear in investors. And accordingly, central banks of multiple countries are taking actions. US Fed, ECB and Bank of England decided to raise the interest rates again. ECB announced that it could raise again in May, while US seems it will leave it at this point if circumstances will not dictate otherwise. Fear of investors is always leaving negative impact on the market, and so did this time. I am talking about S&P 500, American index that is tracking 500 American companies. However, it is not the only index suffering at the moment.

Date: 22.3.2023
ChatGPT got a competition

Curiosity got better part of me, as probably is the same with many other people, and I went to try what ChatGPT can offer me. I had to admit that I was very surprised. It is something completely new and innovative. It basically knows answer to almost everything (happening before 2021) and can help you in many ways. However, I saw some discomfort of users, when they found out that Microsoft decided to charge a subscription for it. But hey, on the other hand, they need to get the investment back in some way. And to make things even worse, ChatGPT got a competition – Bard, AI of Google.

Date: 20.3.2023
The fall of Turkish lira

Among the news about the collapse of Credit Suisse, and how UBS agreed to buy them for a little over 3 billion USD, there was another interesting news that caught my attention – Turkish lira is rapidly falling and is on the record low against American dollar.  Lira has always been very volatile, compared to other currencies, but this was something else rather than normal volatility. I decided to dig in and check what is the cause.

Date: 17.3.2023
ECB raised interest rates

Almost any news site that I opened, was reporting about the ECB’s decision yesterday to raise the interest rates for 0,5 point. And almost every article was guessing, what this could mean amidst the bank crisis around the world. In other articles there were news about the fall of Credit Suisse. I decided to make here a summary of things that I found out, to easier decide about the trade later.

Date: 15.3.2023
Chicken problem around the world

I quickly jumped to the store in the morning to buy eggs for breakfast, and I was negatively surprised about their price. I understand that inflation and everything could push the price up, but 80% and more for the eggs compared to when I bought few months ago is a little too much. I decided to investigate the matter immediately.

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.97% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.