Pressurized deliveries
In the last quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered approximately 418,000 vehicles to customers, which was noticeably less than the market expected. Wall Street was counting on a significantly higher volume of deliveries, while the company's internal consensus itself was also lagging behind. However, the reality confirmed that the weakening of demand was deeper. For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, which represents a year-on-year decrease of almost 9%. This is a stark contrast to previous years, when the company grew at a double-digit pace and regularly exceeded analysts' expectations.
Model Y dependency
At the same time, the sales structure shows a strong concentration on the Model 3 and Model Y, which accounted for the vast majority of all shipments. For now, more premium models, including the Cybertruck, remain more of an accessory than a pillar of sales, despite strong media interest and a high number of bookings after the show. This fact is all the more important because competition in the segment of mass electric cars has significantly intensified. In particular, BYD was able to increase sales by more than a quarter in 2025, definitely overtaking Tesla in global deliveries.
Weakening in Europe
Tesla's decline in the European market was particularly significant, where registrations of its vehicles fell by tens of percent. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers, led by BYD, recorded a sharp increase in sales. ACEA data shows that while the share of battery electric vehicles in new vehicles in Europe is growing, Tesla is benefiting less from this trend than in the past. For investors, this is an important signal that the brand no longer has an automatic advantage in the region and has to face aggressive price and technological competition.
Energy as a more stable pillar
A more positive picture is brought by the energy segment, where Tesla continues to rapidly expand battery storage. In the last quarter, the company deployed more than 14 GWh of capacity, continuing the record values from the previous period. The growth in demand for storage for data centers and power grids suggests that this segment can offset the volatility of the automotive business and provide more stable cash flow in the future.
Politics, reputation and Elon Musk
At the same time, 2025 was heavily influenced by Elon Musk's ambitions. His political activities and involvement in controversial initiatives have sparked consumer resistance in the US and Europe, which, according to several analysts, has also translated into weaker sales. The paradox is that at the same time, Musk demonstrated confidence in the company by massively buying shares and received a historically unprecedented compensation package. The market is thus faced with the question of the extent to which Tesla is now more of a technological vision than a classic car manufacturer.
Looking to the future
Going forward, Tesla's investment story is increasingly moving away from just selling vehicles. Analysts point to the potential in areas such as robotaxi, humanoid robots or a broader vision of an automated and energy-sustainable economy. At the same time, EV adoption is expected to grow[1] in emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which may open up new opportunities for Tesla. For investors, Tesla remains a high-risk company, but also with the potential to fundamentally change several industries – the question remains when and at what price this vision will translate into stable results.
[1] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which is subject to change. Such statements are not a guarantee of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.
This text presents make-up communication. It is not any form of investment advice or investment research or an offer of any transaction with a financial instrument. The content of the text does not take into account the individual circumstances of readers, their experience or financial situation. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future results.
Sources:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/delivery-consensus-fourth-quarter-2025
