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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

May
2025
Definície pojmov:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 19

Are tobacco companies able to defy the bans on cigarettes?

Date: 17.2.2023

As usual, I started my day on a positive note – with a cup of coffee and cigarette. As I was sitting on my balcony and smoking, I got this crazy idea, that was in front of me for the whole time. I asked myself, how is one of the biggest tobacco companies doing? I ran to grab my laptop and opened the chart of Phillip Morris stocks. What immediately caught my eye was the volatility. Usually, I am not used to seeing this kind of fast rising and falling in stocks, but this one is different. I noticed that we are right after the rise, and for 10 or so days the stock is moving sideways, not going anywhere. If the history of price will repeat itself, the price should drop. But this is only based on technical analysis of the chart. As I consider myself as some sort of analyst, or let’s say I really do enjoy capital markets, I decided to quickly check the news, e.g., perform a fundamental analysis. Few clicks on the internet and I found a very interesting article – well, probably not so amusing for smokers in Mexico. Mexico decided to put ban on smoking on ANY public spaces. Imagine. That includes restaurants, beaches, etc. And I thought to myself, if a country with 126 million people puts a ban like this, it could have a bad effect on the price development of the stock. Scrolling forward, European Union decided to ban the advertisement of cigarettes. And that finally made sense. When I travelled to certain countries, all boxes looked the same. You could not recognize which brand is on the shelf from distance. And if that is not enough, many countries are constantly raising the tax on cigarettes, as they want people to stop smoking and/or not even start.

So, I found out the one side of a coin. Now off to the second one, I thought. Phillip Morris, despite all the bans and “sanctions” on tobacco products, they just don’t give up. They have invented a heating stick, called IQOS, which only “heats” and not burns the tobacco. It was a huge success for the company. Then they found out the trend was vaping, so they invented some kind of a vape, however that was not as successful. But marketing did a really good job and attracted many people to start smoking IQOS. It seems that company will bet more and more on their heating products, as war on cigarettes keeps improving. After I read all the important news, I went to check the charts again. The price of a stock in the beginning of the year was exactly the same as the one at the time of performing this technical analysis. The price currently is at 100,38 USD for a stock. Meanwhile, as I noticed volatility, it was not that bad as it seemed. At least this year. The highest price reached this year was 105 USD, while the lowest was 98,51.* After all the gathered info, I decided to short a stock for some time now and then decide to either long it or leave it at short. However, it is a stock that I need to keep my eyes on.

Obrázok1

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Link to 5 year chart: https://www.investing.com/equities/philip-morris-intl

Date: 3.7.2024
Dodávky vozidiel Tesla klesli, avšak prekonali očakávania

Keď sa zamyslím nad nedávnymi výsledkami spoločnosti Tesla za druhý štvrťrok, je zrejmé, že priekopník v oblasti elektrických vozidiel (EV) sa naďalej dokáže pohybovať v prostredí tvrdej konkurencie a klesajúceho dopytu. Napriek poklesu dodávok dokázala prekonať očakávania trhu, čo jej zabezpečilo nárast hodnoty akcií o 10% a dostali sa takmer na 6-mesačné maximum.*

Date: 6.9.2023
Moderna aktualizovala svoju vakcínu proti COVID

Napriek tomu, že vírus Covid takmer upadol do úplného zabudnutia, v mnohých krajinách Európy sa znovu objavil. Takže aj keď sme si mysleli, že je to všetko konečne za nami, smutnou realitou je, že vírus je stále medzi nami. Rozhodol som sa preveriť farmaceutické spoločnosti, ktoré vyrábajú vakcíny proti Covid-u, a zistiť, či majú nejaké novinky. Nezostal som sklamaný, pretože článok na Reuters mi poskytol informácie o tom, že Moderna práve aktualizovala svoju vakcínu.

Date: 30.8.2023
Predaj áut v Európe v júli vzrástol

Napriek tomu, že ceny áut boli v poslednom roku veľmi vysoké, zdá sa, že ceny začínajú klesať. Našiel som článok na Reuters, ktorý potvrdzoval moje predpovede, a kde sa písalo, že európske predaje áut vzrástli v júli o 15%, zatiaľ čo predaje EV boli dramaticky vyššie na úrovni okolo 61%, čo je veľmi pekný skok.

Date: 23.8.2023
Microsoft a Activision budú ponúkať streamovacie práva

Myslím, že veľa ľudí našej generácie a mladších dôverne pozná hru Call of Duty. Bol to veľký hit za mojich tínedžerských rokov a stále mám na toto obdobie pekné spomienky, aj keď boli vytvorené online. Pred časom sa objavili správy, že spoločnosť Activision, tvorcu spomínanej hry, kupuje Microsoft. Teraz som našiel články, že sa na pozadí dejú ešte ďalšie veci.

Date: 9.8.2023
IPO spoločnosti Arm sa blíži

V dnešnom denníku som sa to rozhodol urobiť trochu inak. Zvyčajne vždy robím poznámky o svojom obchodovaní, dnes však budem robiť poznámky pre seba o blížiacom sa IPO spoločnosti Arm. Rozhodol som sa to urobiť týmto spôsobom, pretože som si prečítal dva veľmi zaujímavé články o významných spoločnostiach, ktoré budú investovať do prvotnej verejnej ponuky akcií spoločnosti Arm.

Varovanie pred rizikom: Finančné rozdielové zmluvy sú zložité nástroje a sú spojené s vysokým rizikom rýchlych finančných strát v dôsledku pákového efektu. Na 87.79% účtov neprofesionálnych investorov dochádza k finančným stratám pri obchodovaní s finančnými rozdielovými zmluvami u tohto poskytovateľa. Mali by ste zvážiť, či chápete, ako finančné rozdielové zmluvy fungujú, a či si môžete dovoliť podstúpiť vysoké riziko, že utrpíte finančné straty.