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Trader's Diary

Economic calendar

May
2025
Definície pojmov:
Earnings
IPOs
Splits
Week 22

Reflecting on Inflation's Grip

Date: 13.3.2024

In the intricate dance of the stock market, the tune is often set by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As an investor, my strategy has always been to stay attuned to the subtle shifts in economic indicators, understanding that these can herald significant changes in market dynamics. The recent buzz around potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June has added a new layer of complexity to my investment calculus, especially considering the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggesting a higher-than-anticipated inflation landscape.

Anticipating the Fed's Moves

 

The anticipation of interest rate cuts has historically been a beacon for markets, often leading to bullish sentiment among investors. However, the current scenario presents a paradox; the February CPI data, showcasing a higher inflation rate than expected, casts a long shadow over the jubilance of potential rate reductions. This dichotomy between inflationary pressures and the prospect of rate cuts places me in a position where I must carefully balance my portfolio, hedging against potential volatility while remaining poised to capitalize on opportunities that may arise from a lowering of rates.

 

Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing

 

In response to these developments, my investment approach has involved a meticulous reassessment of my holdings over the past week. High inflation rates, coupled with the potential for a shift in the Fed's interest rate policy, necessitate a strategic rebalancing of assets. I find myself increasingly gravitating towards sectors that historically show resilience in inflationary periods for example, Coca- Cola or Johnson & Johnson, while also keeping an eye on growth-oriented investments that could benefit from a rate cut.

 

The Interplay of Inflation and Investment Decisions

 

The inflationary signals from the CPI data are a critical input in my investment decision-making process. Elevated inflation could prompt the Fed to adjust its rate cut timeline, impacting the cost of borrowing, consumer spending, and overall economic growth. These factors, in turn, influence the performance of various market sectors and individual stocks. Hence, my current strategy involves a judicious mix of fixed-income securities, which tend to benefit from rate cuts, and selective equity positions in industries less susceptible to inflationary pressures.

 

Forward-Looking Investment Outlook

 

Looking ahead, I am keenly aware that the investment landscape is fluid, and shaped by a multitude of factors beyond just interest rates and inflation. Geopolitical events, corporate earnings, and technological advancements play pivotal roles. Nevertheless, the prospect of rate cuts — set against the backdrop of persistent inflation — will be a dominant theme in my investment strategy for the foreseeable future. As I navigate these uncertain waters, I will focus on staying adaptable, informed, and strategic, ready to adjust my portfolio in alignment with the evolving economic environment.

Date: 3.7.2024
Dodávky vozidiel Tesla klesli, avšak prekonali očakávania

Keď sa zamyslím nad nedávnymi výsledkami spoločnosti Tesla za druhý štvrťrok, je zrejmé, že priekopník v oblasti elektrických vozidiel (EV) sa naďalej dokáže pohybovať v prostredí tvrdej konkurencie a klesajúceho dopytu. Napriek poklesu dodávok dokázala prekonať očakávania trhu, čo jej zabezpečilo nárast hodnoty akcií o 10% a dostali sa takmer na 6-mesačné maximum.*

Date: 6.9.2023
Moderna aktualizovala svoju vakcínu proti COVID

Napriek tomu, že vírus Covid takmer upadol do úplného zabudnutia, v mnohých krajinách Európy sa znovu objavil. Takže aj keď sme si mysleli, že je to všetko konečne za nami, smutnou realitou je, že vírus je stále medzi nami. Rozhodol som sa preveriť farmaceutické spoločnosti, ktoré vyrábajú vakcíny proti Covid-u, a zistiť, či majú nejaké novinky. Nezostal som sklamaný, pretože článok na Reuters mi poskytol informácie o tom, že Moderna práve aktualizovala svoju vakcínu.

Date: 30.8.2023
Predaj áut v Európe v júli vzrástol

Napriek tomu, že ceny áut boli v poslednom roku veľmi vysoké, zdá sa, že ceny začínajú klesať. Našiel som článok na Reuters, ktorý potvrdzoval moje predpovede, a kde sa písalo, že európske predaje áut vzrástli v júli o 15%, zatiaľ čo predaje EV boli dramaticky vyššie na úrovni okolo 61%, čo je veľmi pekný skok.

Date: 23.8.2023
Microsoft a Activision budú ponúkať streamovacie práva

Myslím, že veľa ľudí našej generácie a mladších dôverne pozná hru Call of Duty. Bol to veľký hit za mojich tínedžerských rokov a stále mám na toto obdobie pekné spomienky, aj keď boli vytvorené online. Pred časom sa objavili správy, že spoločnosť Activision, tvorcu spomínanej hry, kupuje Microsoft. Teraz som našiel články, že sa na pozadí dejú ešte ďalšie veci.

Date: 9.8.2023
IPO spoločnosti Arm sa blíži

V dnešnom denníku som sa to rozhodol urobiť trochu inak. Zvyčajne vždy robím poznámky o svojom obchodovaní, dnes však budem robiť poznámky pre seba o blížiacom sa IPO spoločnosti Arm. Rozhodol som sa to urobiť týmto spôsobom, pretože som si prečítal dva veľmi zaujímavé články o významných spoločnostiach, ktoré budú investovať do prvotnej verejnej ponuky akcií spoločnosti Arm.

Varovanie pred rizikom: Finančné rozdielové zmluvy sú zložité nástroje a sú spojené s vysokým rizikom rýchlych finančných strát v dôsledku pákového efektu. Na 87.79% účtov neprofesionálnych investorov dochádza k finančným stratám pri obchodovaní s finančnými rozdielovými zmluvami u tohto poskytovateľa. Mali by ste zvážiť, či chápete, ako finančné rozdielové zmluvy fungujú, a či si môžete dovoliť podstúpiť vysoké riziko, že utrpíte finančné straty.